Examples of Policy Research Support from IAPRI

Zambian Maize Outlook and Regional Analysis
Brian P. Mulenga, Alefa Banda, Antony Chapoto, and Brian Chisanga. Indaba Agirulctural Policy Research Institute. Issue 5, December 2019. Downloadable at http://www.iapri.org.zm/
Government can “do more with less” to meet the challenge of climate change with the fewer resources
through taking a market-based approach to the maize market, which crowds-in the private sector to
boost productivity and reduces reliance on rain-fed agriculture for maize production, complemented by
efforts to promote smallholder resilience and strengthen the safety net to ensure national food security.

Increase productivity and resilience in maize production: Firstly, government needs to crowd-in the
private sector by: a) ending the practice of ad hoc export bans; and b) reduce the FRA’s role in maize
marketing, including better stock rotation practices. Secondly, government should use fiscal savings
from a reduced SGR and scaled back Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) (to be achieved by
improving the targeting of beneficiaries and rolling the e-voucher back to districts under the DIS) to
make more productive investments in irrigation, extension services and market access to promote
diversification and smallholder resilience.

Reduce the size of the SGR and employ a virtual reserve: Government has been able to ensure food
security with an SGR which peaked at around the 350,000 MT. The Indaba Agricultural Policy Research
Institute (IAPRI) has recommended that the government should maintain a smaller SGR in the upcoming
season. However, as the FRA will likely hold low levels of carryover stock into the marketing season,
government will need to ensure that it is able procure the target amount.

Improve the relief efforts of the FRA: This season has shown that government can ensure food security
with a smaller SGR but needs to improve its measures to provide support to vulnerable houses. The FRA
and DMMU should strengthen there targeting and distribution of handouts; use market-based solutions
such as the emergency cash transfer; and end the practice of subsidising millers which has no pass-
through effect on price.

Expedite the operationalisation of the Zambia Grain Information System (ZAGIS): A lack of market
information on stock levels and location has hindered the effectiveness of government’s response to the
drought. Government should work with the private sector to set up ZAGIS as a real-time grain stock
tracking system under the ambit of the Ministry of Agriculture.

ZAMBIA Agriculture Status Report 2019.
Brian P. Mulenga, Mulako Kabisa, and Antony Chapoto. Indaba Agirulctural Policy Research Institute. Issue 5, December 2019. Downloadable at http://www.iapri.org.zm/
Zambia’s agricultural sector is the mainstay for many of the country’s population. Of the 2,498,971
people employed in both the formal and informal sector across all industries, just over 28 percent are
employed by the sector – the highest proportion of all the sectors (CSO 2019). The importance of the
agricultural sector is clearly outlined in national development and is backed up by national policy and
commitments made towards this. A clear link is made in national policy that in order for the country to
achieve Vision 2030 – a prosperous middle income nation by 2030 – there is need to increase labour
productivity in the agricultural sector; and gradually transform the current agrarian economy into an
industry based economy (MNDP, 2006). This will require investment into the known key drivers of
agricultural growth – such as rural infrastructure, agricultural research and development, market information, irrigation and effective markets, and services such as agricultural extension and credit; all
of which will require restructuring of public spending to meet this national priority.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Availability in Zambia: Implications for Irrigation Development
Byman H. Hamududu and Hambulo Ngoma, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI), Technical Paper 7, February 2018
Water resources are important for current and future socioeconomic development of any country. To manage water resources sustainably requires a good understanding of the current and future availability of these resources at local level: how much water is available, where is it available and when? This paper assesses the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the impacts of projected climate change on water resource availability, and draws implications for irrigation development in Zambia. Unlike past studies done at national level, this study is at river basin level. Using a water balance model in a hydrological modeling framework and statistical downscaling of future climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the paper simulates the impacts of climate change on water availability in Zambia’s main river basins from current periods until the end of the century in 2100.

The Value of Non-timber Forest Products in Zambia: Indirect and Non-Use Benefits
Hambulo Ngoma, Paul Samboko, Chewe Nkonde, and Davison Gumbo, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper 131, December 2017.
The potential of a sustainable forest resource base to contribute to improved livelihoods is central in the development discourse. In sub-Saharan Africa and Zambia in particular, the missing piece in this narrative has been the availability of reliable data estimates of the extent to which forests contribute to key economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP). In this paper, we augment recent empirical strides that have been made in Zambia to estimate direct use values of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) by estimating the indirect and non-use values of these products.

Irrigation Development for Climate Resilience in Zambia: The Known Knowns and Known Unknowns
Hambulo Ngoma, Byman Hamududu, Peter Hangoma, Paul Samboko, Munguzwe Hichaambwa and Chance Kabaghe, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper 130, December 2017.
Irrigation is increasingly seen as a necessary means to build resilience in smallholder rain-fed farming systems and to increase productivity to meet growing food demands in sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation was important in the Asian Green Revolution. Abundant surface and ground water availability and the under-exploited irrigation potentials offer real prospects for expanding irrigation in several sub-Saharan African countries, Zambia inclusive. However, there are still several gaps – the known unknowns: what irrigation models work and are suitable for smallholder farmers in the context of climate change? What irrigation models are preferred and why? What are the likely impacts of climate change on water availability and what are the long-term implications for irrigation development?

Are Agricultural Subsidies Gender Sensitive? Heterogeneous Impacts of the Farmer Input Support Program in Zambia
Machina, H., Ngoma, H., Kuteya, A., Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper 122, August 2017.
Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa face several challenges including low productivity, food insecurity and low agricultural diversification, which contribute to high poverty. To address these challenges, governments in the region have been implementing agricultural subsidy programs to raise productivity and promote household food security, among other things. The subsidy programs have been associated with some positive impacts on productivity but not so much on stimulating overall agricultural growth and poverty reduction. In some instances, subsidies have been found to crowd out demand for commercial fertilizer. However, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on whether subsidies can reduce the gendered productivity gaps in agriculture. This paper contributes towards filling this gap. In particular, we assess the gendered impacts of receiving FISP on productivity and assess whether these impacts are heterogeneous between female- and male-managed plots. Unlike past studies done at household level, our analysis is at the plot level and distinguishes between male- and female-managed plots.

Land Institutions in Zambia: Evolution and the Determinants of the Extent of Land Titling
Paul C. Samboko, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper 122. August 2017.
This study sought to update the facts on the geography of land institutions in Zambia and identify the correlates of the intensity of land titling. Specifically, tracking (i) the rate and extent of conversion of land rights from customary to leasehold tenure and (ii) the extent of rural land documentation through chief certificates; also, assess the impact of land titling on crop incomes.

What Drives Conservation Agriculture Adoption among Smallholder Farmers in Zambia?
Olipa Zulu-Mbata, Antony Chapoto, and Munguzwe Hichaambwa, Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Policy Brief No. 90. June 2017.
This paper investigates the determinants of Conservation Agriculture adoption in Zambia, and makes recommendations to support the adoption of such practice.

Do Crop Income Shocks Widen Disparities in Smallholder Agricultural Investments? Panel Survey Evidence from Zambia.
Yoko Kusunose, Nicole M Mason, and Solomon Tembo. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper No. 116. December 2016.
We investigate whether the effects of negative crop income shocks in one season persist in subsequent seasons due to reductions in crop inputs. If bad seasons cause household cash constraints to bind, and this results in the scaling back of the next season’s production, the next season’s crop income is also compromised, potentially creating a poverty trap. Troublingly, households most susceptible to such a poverty trap mechanism are likely to be those that rely the most on own-farm production and have the fewest sources of liquidity—in other words, the poorest.

Value Chain Analysis of Goats in Zambia: Challenges and Opportunities of Linking Smallholders to Markets.
Thelma Namonje-Kapembwa, Harrison Chiwawa, and Nicholas Sitko. Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute (IAPRI) Working Paper No. 117. December 2016.
Zambia’s livestock sector plays a pivotal role in the socio-economic development of both the rural and urban population. Smallholder farmers, for the most part, dominate the sector, and at the household level, its role goes beyond the provision of food and nutrition in people’s diets, to act as a risk buffer by providing an alternative source of income in case of crop failure.