Food System Dynamics: Anticipating and Adapting to Change
Minde, I.J. and colleagues at MAFS & BCC
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This paper underscores the scope and nature of needed responses to the rapidly changing food
systems in Africa. The paper identifies key drivers of this change and estimates their
magnitudes. The drivers identified are urbanization, per capita income growth, globalization
and climate change. Emphasis is laid on the former two largely because these are drivers of
predictable change.
The findings show that Africa’s food consumption patterns will change dramatically over the
next four decades. Urbanization will increase three-folds in the next 40 years and will
outstrip the rural population. Together with a growing per capita incomes of about two
percent per annum, urban marketed food will increase six-folds, ramping up demand for
packaged convenience foods and requiring substantial private sector investment in food
processing technology. The tertiary agricultural education and training institutions will need
to respond to these changes by offering skills in the respective fields like food packaging,
logistics, supply chain management, food hygiene, etc. as opposed to being content with the
traditional lower level value chain skills.
As urbanization increases, consumption of cheap, high starch, low micronutrient foods will
become more widely consumed contributing to overweight, obesity, diabetes and
hypertension disorders. These will require both private sector and government policy
responses to raise awareness and educate the population in order to reduce these negative
impacts.
