Food System Dynamics: Projecting Changes in Food Demand in East and Southern Africa through 2040
DOWNLOADOctober 1, 2013 - David Tschirley, Michael Dolislager, Ferdi Meyer, Lulama Traub, and David Ortega
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EmailThis paper explores this topic. We first describe recent food consumption patterns in East and Southern Africa, taking advantage of household level income-expenditure data sets in Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia,
and South Africa. We highlight differences across countries, across ruralurban residence, and across levels of income. By including South Africa in the analysis – a country with far higher incomes and much greater transformation of its food system than its neighbors to the north – we develop initial expectations regarding how patterns in other countries of the region might change over time. We then present the Rest of Africa Maize Mixed food staple zone (FSZ) and describe current average consumption patterns of households at differing income levels across that zone. This becomes the basis for the simulation model that we use to project scenarios
of diet change over the next 30 years across the zone. In the final section we discuss other qualitative changes in demand likely to occur over the next 30 years that were not incorporated into the projection model, and anticipate the rate at which they will occur.
