MAFS Working Paper No. 1
DOWNLOADSeptember 1, 2012 - Minde, I.J.1 and colleagues at MAFS2 & BCC3
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This paper underscores the scope and nature of needed responses to the rapidly changing food systems in Africa. The paper identifies key drivers of this change and estimates their magnitudes. The drivers identified are urbanization, per capita income growth, globalization and climate change. Emphasis is laid on the former two largely because these are drivers of predictable change.
The findings show that Africa’s food consumption patterns will change dramatically over the next four decades. Urbanization will increase three-folds in the next 40 years and will outstrip the rural population. Together with a growing per capita incomes of about two percent per annum, urban marketed food will increase six-folds, ramping up demand for packaged convenience foods and requiring substantial private sector investment in food processing technology. The tertiary agricultural education and training institutions will need to respond to these changes by offering skills in the respective fields like food packaging, logistics, supply chain management, food hygiene, etc. as opposed to being content with the traditional lower level value chain skills.
As urbanization increases, consumption of cheap, high starch, low micronutrient foods will become more widely consumed contributing to overweight, obesity, diabetes and hypertension disorders. These will require both private sector and government policy responses to raise awareness and educate the population in order to reduce these negative impacts.
